I saw a post on LinkedIn today that made me roll my eyes. The amount of antics on LI seem to be ramping up.

The post was about calculating the probability you’ll hit your 2026 revenue target using Monte Carlo simulations, statistical distributions, and mathematical precision.

Nine slides. Charts showing probability curves. Graphs modeling different growth scenarios. Formulas that would make a data scientist proud.

All to answer one question: “What’s your revenue target and will you hit it?”

This is consulting theater at its finest.

The illusion of precision

Here’s the thing about revenue forecasting: it’s not rocket science.

You look at your pipeline. You look at your conversion rates. You look at your team capacity. You make an educated guess about what’s realistic.

Then you build a plan and execute it.

But that’s not sexy. That doesn’t require a 9-slide deck or a fancy framework. So consultants dress it up.

They add:

• Statistical rigor that sounds impressive
• Models that require specialized knowledge to understand
• Jargon that makes you feel like you’ve been doing it wrong

And suddenly, something you’ve been doing for years – setting a target and working toward it feels inadequate.

You start to think: Maybe I need this. Maybe my spreadsheet and gut feel aren’t enough.

Let me save you some money: they are.

What actually happens when you grow a company

I spent 5 years scaling Hubstaff from $4M to $31M in recurring revenue. We had revenue targets every year. Board meetings every quarter. Forecasts we had to defend.

Some years we crushed it. Other years we fell short.

You know what we never needed? A Monte Carlo simulation.

Here’s what we actually did:

We looked at last year’s numbers

• What did we close?
• What churned? What expanded?
• Where did we grow and where did we struggle?

We looked at the market

• Was our category growing?
• Were competitors gaining ground?
• What were customers saying?

We looked at our team

• How many reps did we have?
• How many could we realistically hire and ramp?
• What was their capacity?

We set a target that felt ambitious but achievable.

• Not a number pulled out of thin air.
• Not a board-mandated fantasy. A real target based on real inputs.

Then we built a plan

• How many deals did each segment need to close?
• What pipeline coverage did we need?
• Where were the gaps?

And we executed

Week by week. Deal by deal. Problem by problem.

Was it perfect? Hell no.

Did we hit every target? Nope.

But we grew. Consistently. For years.

And we did it without needing a framework that required a statistics degree to understand.

The problem with overcomplicated frameworks

When you wrap basic business questions in layers of complexity, a few things happen:

First, you waste time.

Time spent building models is time not spent talking to customers. Not closing deals. Not fixing the things that are actually broken.

I’ve seen teams spend weeks building elaborate forecasting models while their pipeline was falling apart. The model looked great in the presentation. The deals didn’t close.

Second, you create false confidence.

A sophisticated model makes you feel like you have control over the future. Like if you just tweak the inputs correctly, you can predict what’s going to happen.

But you can’t.

You can’t model the VP of Sales quitting two months before the end of the year. You can’t model a critical product bug that kills deals for six weeks.

You can’t model a competitor dropping their prices by 40% out of nowhere.

The future is messy. Pretending you can simulate it with mathematical precision is comforting, but it’s still pretending.

Third, you stop trusting your instincts.

Most experienced operators know if they’re on track or not. They can feel it.

They feel it in pipeline reviews when the numbers look thin. They feel it in customer calls when objections are getting harder to overcome. They feel it in team meetings when morale starts to slip.

That feeling matters. That’s pattern recognition built from years of experience.

But when someone tells you that feeling isn’t enough – that you need statistical rigor and probability distributions – they’re undermining something valuable.

They’re selling you the idea that your experience and judgment aren’t sufficient. That you need their framework to be credible.

That’s bullshit.

What you actually need to know

Here’s the truth about hitting your revenue target:

You need to know if you have enough pipeline.

Not modeled pipeline. Not projected pipeline. Real pipeline. Deals that are actually in motion with real buyers who have real budgets.

If your pipeline coverage is 4x your target and your historical close rate is 25%, you’re probably okay. If your coverage is 2x and close rates are slipping, you have a problem.

That’s not a simulation. That’s just math.

You need to know if your team is executing.

Are reps hitting quota? Are they following the process? Are deals moving through stages at a healthy pace or getting stuck?

You don’t need a model to tell you this. You need to actually look at the data you already have.

You need to know what’s broken and fix it.

Is your product missing features that keep coming up in lost deals? Is your pricing wrong for the market? Are your best people leaving?

No framework will fix these problems. You have to identify them and address them. One by one. That’s the actual work.

You need to execute consistently.

This is the part nobody wants to hear because it’s not interesting.

Hitting your revenue target isn’t about finding the perfect framework. It’s about doing boring things repeatedly:

• Running pipeline reviews every week
• Coaching reps who are struggling
• Following up on stalled deals
• Holding people accountable
• Making tough calls when things aren’t working

That’s not a slide deck. That’s just showing up and doing the work.

Why consultants complicate things

Look, I get it. Consultants need to sell their services.

If they said “just look at your pipeline and execute your plan,” nobody would hire them. So they dress it up. They add layers of sophistication that make the simple look complex.

That’s their job. I don’t blame them for it.

But if you’re an operator trying to actually grow a company, you need to see through it.

The best operators I know don’t use elaborate frameworks. They use clear thinking, good judgment, and relentless execution.

They know their numbers cold. They understand their business intimately. They make decisions quickly based on incomplete information because waiting for perfect data means missing opportunities.

They trust their instincts, refined through years of pattern recognition.

And when something isn’t working, they don’t build a model to understand why. They talk to customers, talk to their team, and figure out what needs to change.

That’s how you actually grow revenue.

What to do instead

If you’re trying to figure out whether you’ll hit your 2026 target, here’s what I’d do:

Look at your Q4 2025 performance. Are you on track to hit this year’s number? If you’re struggling to close out this year, next year will be harder.

Look at your pipeline for Q1 and Q2 2026. Is it building? Is coverage healthy? Are deals progressing or stalling?

Look at your churn and expansion trends. What’s happening with your existing customers? Are you retaining and growing them or fighting to stay flat?

Look at your team. Do you have the right people? Are they ramping as expected? Do you need to hire more or different?

Ask yourself honestly: what’s the biggest risk to hitting the target? Not in a model. In reality. Is it pipeline generation? Close rates? Team capacity? Product gaps? Competitive pressure?

Then focus all your energy on that risk.

That’s it. No simulations required.

The real work isn’t sexy

Growing a company is hard. It’s stressful. There are weeks when everything feels like it’s falling apart.

You want certainty. You want to feel like you have control. You want a framework that makes the chaos feel manageable.

I get it. I’ve been there.

But the truth is, there’s no framework that will make it easy. No model that will give you certainty. No consultant who can do the hard work for you.

The only way through is to:

• Hire good people who give a shit
• Build something customers actually want
• Execute the basics consistently
• Fix problems as they come up
• Keep going even when it’s hard

That’s not a slide deck. That’s not “Growth Architecture.”

That’s just the work.

And if you do it well enough, for long enough, you’ll hit your targets.

Not because you had the perfect model. But because you showed up every day and did what needed to be done.